APPLYING THE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODEL FOR FORECASTING TOURISTS ARRIVALS – EXAMPLE OF NOVI SAD, BELGRADE AND NIŠ

Aleksandra Vujko; Nataša Papić-Blagojević; Tamara Gajić

doi:10.5937/ekoPolj1802757V

Authors

Aleksandra Vujko, PhD Novi Sad School of Business, Novi Sad http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8684-4228
Nataša Papi?-Blagojevi?, PhD Novi Sad School of Business, Novi Sad
Tamara Gajić Novi Sad School of Business, Novi Sad

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5937/ekoPolj1802757V

Keywords:

time series forecasting, exponential smoothing model, overnight stays, Serbia

Abstract

Predicting future movements of tourism demand based solely on the past behaviour of variables such as number of overnight stays is crucial for the development of tourism and mitigation of seasonality. Nowadays, there are many different models that could be used for forecasting. Sometimes, some simpler models could ft better to collected data and, in the other hand, more sophisticated ones are more convenient. In this paper, the exponential smoothing models have been applied on the data that was taken from Republic Statistical Offce (RSO). The research was conducted on monthly data relating to the number of overnight stays in Belgrade, Novi Sad and Niš during the period from January 2000 to December 2013. Based on the selected data, forecasting was made for overnight stays until May 2018. It is concluded that the selected models correspond to the observed data, and the precision of the obtained predictions is determined by comparing the BIC precision measures.

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