FORECASTING MAIZE PRODUCTION IN REPUBLIC OF SERBIA USING ARIMA MODEL

Dejana Vučković; Svjetlana Janković Šoja; Tamara Paunović

doi:10.59267/ekoPolj24041129V

Authors

Dejana Vučković Faculty of Agriculture, Belgrade University, Nemanjina Street no. 6, 11080 Zemun – Belgrade, Serbia https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9365-8634
Svjetlana Janković Šoja Faculty of Agriculture, Belgrade University, Nemanjina Street no. 6, 11080 Zemun – Belgrade, Serbia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5474-9039
Tamara Paunović Faculty of Agriculture, Belgrade University, Nemanjina Street no. 6, 11080 Zemun – Belgrade, Serbia https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4747-0678

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.59267/ekoPolj24041129V

Keywords:

maize production, time series, ARIMA model, forecast, Republic of Serbia

Abstract

Considering the importance of maize in the Republic of Serbia, the aim of the paper is to select an appropriate econometric model that describes and predicts the future trends of maize production in the Republic of Serbia. In order to forecast the future trends of maize production from 2023 to 2027, a time series of annual data from 1990 to 2022 was analyzed using the autoregressive integrated moving average model. The model shows that maize production in 2023 will be 49.34% higher than in 2022. According to the forecast, the growth trend in maize production will continue until 2025, after which a decline in production is predicted. This paper also found that the autoregressive integrated moving average model for the selected time series of maize production provides approximate and more reliable forecast results than the extrapolation of the average annual rate of change.

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