FORECASTING MAIZE YIELD IN THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA BY USING BOX-JENKINS METHODOLOGY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5937/ekoPolj1902525DKeywords:
maize yield, time series, BoxJenkins methodology, forecastAbstract
As food supply is one of the most important issues for national security, forecasting agricultural production represents a necessity for every country. Forecasting yields and production volume is a very complex task that requires both application of formal statistical methods and assessment of experts. Considering not only the significant role of maize in the immediate diet and processing industry in the Republic of Serbia, but also its absolute dominance in the structure of sown areas, the analysis of the time series and projections of future maize yield were carried out. Maize yield projections obtained through BoxJenkins methodology, for 2017 and 2018, are 4.97 t/ha and 7.01 t/ha. Comparing the projected with realized yield in 2017 (for which there is available data), it was noticed that the models forecast indicated a smaller reduction than actually realized. According to the results of the conducted study, it is clear that although the time series model cannot anticipate precise yield quantities, it can certainly be useful in terms of predicting future tendencies in maize yield oscillations.
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References
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20. Ogar, T. F., Olaoye, G., Abiola, A. Y., Olakojo, S., Isah, M., Bankole, F., Ishaq, M., & Yussuf, A. S. (2017). Evaluation of maize grain yield in drought-prone environment. Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 62(1), 15-29
21. Pejić, B., Maksimović, L., & Milić, S. (2007). The effect of irrigation on yield of corn hybrids from different groups of ripening. Acta biologica Iugoslavica – series A: Soil and plant, 56(2), Yugoslav Society for Land Survey, Belgrade, 59-66. [in Serbian: Pejić, B., Maksimović, L., & Milić, S. (2007), Efekat navodnjavanja na prinos hibrida kukuruza iz različitih grupa zrenja]
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23. Selaković, D., Mirić, M., Vidaković, M., & Hojka, Z. (2006). Production and trade of seeds of the Maize Research Institute "Zemun Polje". Plant breeding and seed production, 12(3-4), 97-103. [in Serbian: Selaković, D., Mirić, M., Vidaković, M., & Hojka, Z. (2006), Proizvodnja i promet semena Instituta za kukuruz "Zemun Polje"].
24. Sodha, D., & Saha, G. (2016). Crop management of agricultural products using time series analysis. In Recent Trends in Electronics, Information & Communication Technology (RTEICT), IEEE International Conference on (pp. 1456-1460), IEEE.
25. Tabaković, M. (2012). Influence of weather conditions, soil and genotype combination on maize hybrid seed features. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Belgrade-Faculty of Agriculture, Belgrade. [in Serbian: Tabaković, M. (2012), Uticaj vremenskih uslova, zemljišta i genotipske kombinacije na osobine hibridnog semena kukuruza].
26. Tokatlidis, I. S. (2013). Adapting maize crop to climate change. Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 33(1), 63-79.
27. Vanuytrecht, E., Raes, D., & Willems, P. (2014). Global sensitivity analysis of yield output from the water productivity model. Environmental Modelling & Software, 51, 323-332.
28. Vogel, E., Donat, M. G., Alexander, L. V., Meinshausen, M., Ray, D. K., Karoly, D., Meinshausen, N. & Frieler, K. (2019). The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields. Environmental Research Letters, 14(5), 054010.
29. Zhao, J., Xue, Q., Hao, B., Marek, T. H., Jessup, K. E., Xu, W.W., Bean, B.W. & Colaizzi, P. D. (2019). Yield determination of maize hybrids under limited irrigation. Journal of Crop Improvement, 33(3), 410-427.
2. Biberdžić, M. O., Barać, S. R., Lalević, D. N., Stojiljković, J. V., Knežević, B. P., & Beković, D. K. (2018). Influence of soil type and compaction on maize yield. Arab Universities Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 63(4). [in Serbian: Biberdžić, M. O., Barać, S. R., Lalević, D. N., Stojiljković, J. V., Knežević, B. P., & Beković, D. K. (2018), Uticaj tipa i sabijenosti zemljišta na prinos kukuruza].
3. Bošnjak, Đ., & Pejić, B. (2000). Maize yield and its components depending on the depth of irrigation drip in the soil. Proceedings of the Institute of Field and Vegetable Crops, 34, Institute of Field and Vegetable Crops, Novi Sad, 95-101. [in Serbian: Bošnjak, Đ., & Pejić, B. (2000), Prinos i komponente prinosa kukuruza u zavisnosti od dubine prokvašavanja zemljišta navodnjavanjem].
4. de Oliveira, S. C., Pereira, L. M. M., Hanashiro, J. T. S., & do Val, P. C. (2012). A study about the performance of time series models for the analysis of agricultural prices. Revista GEPROS, 7(3), 11.
5. Döring, T. F., & Reckling, M. (2018). Detecting global trends of cereal yield stability by adjusting the coefficient of variation. European journal of agronomy, 99, 30-36.
6. Fang, J., & Su, Y. (2019). Effects of Soils and Irrigation Volume on Maize Yield, Irrigation Water Productivity, and Nitrogen Uptake. Scientific reports, 9(1), 7740.
7. Filipović, V. (2012). Water for irrigation in the service of sustainable development. Current advisor, PDS Institute ˝Tamiš˝ Pančevo, 1, 4-7, Pančevo. [in Serbian: Filipović, V. (2012), Voda za navodnjavanje u službi održivog razvoja].
8. Gava, R., Usher Neale, C. M., Frizzone, J. A., Anselmo, J. L., Cotrim, M. F., & Kuhn, I. E. (2017). Performance of maize hybrids subject to different application depths under center pivot. WATER RESOURCES AND IRRIGATION MANAGEMENTWRIM, 6(3), 161-168.
9. Glamočlija, Đ., Popović, V., Živanović, L., Filipović, V., Glamočlija, N., & Ugrenović, V. (2016). Morphological and productive properties of red grain maize in variable weather conditions. Plant breeding and seed production, 22(1), 1-9. [in Serbian: Glamočlija, Đ., Popović, V., Živanović, L., Filipović, V., Glamočlija, N., & Ugrenović, V. (2016), Morfološke i produktivne osobine kukuruza crvenog zrna u promenljivim vremenskim uslovima].
10. Hyndman, R. J., & Athanasopoulos, G. (2018). Forecasting: principles and practice. OTexts, Monash University, Australia.
11. Jaramaz, M. (2015). Effects of plant density on yield and maize grain quality under irrigated and rainfed condition. Doctoral Dissertation, University of BelgradeFaculty of Agriculture, Belgrade. [in Serbian: Jaramaz, M. (2015), Uticaj gustine useva na prinos i kvalitet zrna kukuruza u uslovima navodnjavanja i prirodnog vodnog režima].
12. Kovačić, Z. (1995). The time series analysis. University of Belgrade- Faculty of Economics, Belgrade. [in Serbian: Kovačić, Z. (1995), Analiza vremenskih serija].
13. Kresović, B. J., Gajić, B. A., Tapanarova, A. Đ., Pejić, B. S., Tomić, Z. P., Vujović, D. S., & Životić, L. B. (2015). Effects of deficit irrigation on grain yield and ear characteristics of maize. Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 60(4), 419-433. [in Serbian: Kresović, B. J., Gajić, B. A., Tapanarova, A. Đ., Pejić, B. S., Tomić, Z. P., Vujović, D. S., & Životić, L. B. (2015), Uticaj deficitarnog navodnjavanja na prinos zrna i karakteristike klipa kukuruza].
14. Kresović, B., Dragičević, V., & Videnović, Ž. (2011). Effects of chernozem water regime and fertilising on maize yields under conditions of direct sowing. Agricultural Engineering, 36(2), 33-42 [in Serbian: Kresović, B., Dragičević, V. & Videnović, Ž. (2011), Uticaj vodnog režima černozema i đubrenja na prinos kukuruza u uslovima direktne setve].
15. Lopez, J. R., Winter, J. M., Elliott, J., Ruane, A. C., Porter, C., & Hoogenboom, G. (2017). Integrating growth stage deficit irrigation into a process based crop model. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 243, 84-92.
16. Maksimović, L., Dragović, S., Jocković, Đ., & Stojaković, M. (2001). NS-hybrid yield potential under irrigation conditions. Proceedings of the Institute of Field and Vegetable Crops, 35, Institute of Field and Vegetable Crops, Novi Sad, 415-424. [in Serbian: Maksimović, L., Dragović, S., Jocković, Đ., & Stojaković, M. (2001), Potencijal rodnosti NS-hibrida kukuruza u uslovima navodnjavanja].
17. Mladenović, Z., & Nojković, A. (2015). Application of Time Series Analysis. Second Edition, University of Belgrade- Faculty of Economics, Belgrade. [in Serbian: Mladenović, Z., & Nojković, A. (2015), Primenjena analiza vremenskih serija].
18. Munćan, M. (2018): Economic effects of irrigation of basic field crops on family farms. Economics of Agriculture, 65(2), Institute of Agricultural Economics, Belgrade, 787-800.
19. Munćan, P., & Živković, D. (2014). Management of crop production, University of Belgrade-Faculty of Agriculture, Belgrade. [in Serbian: Munćan, P., & Živković, D. (2014), Menadžment ratarske proizvodnje].
20. Ogar, T. F., Olaoye, G., Abiola, A. Y., Olakojo, S., Isah, M., Bankole, F., Ishaq, M., & Yussuf, A. S. (2017). Evaluation of maize grain yield in drought-prone environment. Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 62(1), 15-29
21. Pejić, B., Maksimović, L., & Milić, S. (2007). The effect of irrigation on yield of corn hybrids from different groups of ripening. Acta biologica Iugoslavica – series A: Soil and plant, 56(2), Yugoslav Society for Land Survey, Belgrade, 59-66. [in Serbian: Pejić, B., Maksimović, L., & Milić, S. (2007), Efekat navodnjavanja na prinos hibrida kukuruza iz različitih grupa zrenja]
22. Ralević, N. (1985): Stochastic methods and models of forecasting in agricultural policy. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Belgrade- Faculty of Economics, Belgrade. [in Serbian: Ralević, N. (1985), Stohastički metodi i modeli predviđanja u agrarnoj politici].
23. Selaković, D., Mirić, M., Vidaković, M., & Hojka, Z. (2006). Production and trade of seeds of the Maize Research Institute "Zemun Polje". Plant breeding and seed production, 12(3-4), 97-103. [in Serbian: Selaković, D., Mirić, M., Vidaković, M., & Hojka, Z. (2006), Proizvodnja i promet semena Instituta za kukuruz "Zemun Polje"].
24. Sodha, D., & Saha, G. (2016). Crop management of agricultural products using time series analysis. In Recent Trends in Electronics, Information & Communication Technology (RTEICT), IEEE International Conference on (pp. 1456-1460), IEEE.
25. Tabaković, M. (2012). Influence of weather conditions, soil and genotype combination on maize hybrid seed features. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Belgrade-Faculty of Agriculture, Belgrade. [in Serbian: Tabaković, M. (2012), Uticaj vremenskih uslova, zemljišta i genotipske kombinacije na osobine hibridnog semena kukuruza].
26. Tokatlidis, I. S. (2013). Adapting maize crop to climate change. Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 33(1), 63-79.
27. Vanuytrecht, E., Raes, D., & Willems, P. (2014). Global sensitivity analysis of yield output from the water productivity model. Environmental Modelling & Software, 51, 323-332.
28. Vogel, E., Donat, M. G., Alexander, L. V., Meinshausen, M., Ray, D. K., Karoly, D., Meinshausen, N. & Frieler, K. (2019). The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields. Environmental Research Letters, 14(5), 054010.
29. Zhao, J., Xue, Q., Hao, B., Marek, T. H., Jessup, K. E., Xu, W.W., Bean, B.W. & Colaizzi, P. D. (2019). Yield determination of maize hybrids under limited irrigation. Journal of Crop Improvement, 33(3), 410-427.
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Published
2019-06-25
How to Cite
Đoković, J., Munćan, M., & Paunović, T. (2019). FORECASTING MAIZE YIELD IN THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA BY USING BOX-JENKINS METHODOLOGY. Ekonomika Poljoprivrede, 66(2), 525–540. https://doi.org/10.5937/ekoPolj1902525D
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Review articles
