FORECASTING THE MAIN STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN AGRICULTURE OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5937/ekoPolj2103759SKeywords:
structural changes, agricultural output, forecast, Republic of SerbiaAbstract
Structural changes in agriculture, rural areas and regions, as well as in economic activities related to the production and trade of agricultural products, most often occur as a response to periodic changes in general economic and social conditions. In order to formulate effective policies and strategies, policy makers need adequate information about the main structural changes in agriculture. Therefore, based on the information framework of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, the article primarily focuses on changes of agricultural output in Serbia, respectively changes in crop and animal production, and agricultural services. The research aims to analyze changes in the structure of agricultural output in the period from 2007 to 2019 in order to identify its future trend by applying the forecast function. The research results show that the agricultural production of goods and services will keep the positive trend with a dominant share of crop production.
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References
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3. Ark, V. (1995). Sectoral Growth Accounting and Structural Change in Postwar Europe. Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Gronngen.
4. Božić Miljković, I., Kaličanin, K. & Mitić, V. (2020). Foreign trade of agricultural products between Serbia and the European Union – problems and perspectives. Economic Outlook, 22(1), pp. 29-46.
5. Downes, P. & Stoeckel, A. (2006). Drivers of Structural Change in the Australian Economy. Sydney: Centre for International Economics – Canberra & Sydney.
6. Gardner, B.L. & Rausser, G.C. (2002). Handbook of Agricultural Economics (Т.2). Amsterdam: Elsevier.
7. Gerdien, M. & Pim, R. (2007). The role of agriculture in development. Markets, Chains and Sustainable (Т. 5). Wageningen: Wageningen University & Research.
8. Halloran, J.M. & Archer, D.W. (2008). External Economic Drivers and US Agricultural Production Systems. Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems, 23 (4), 296-303.
9. Hayami, Y. & Godo, Y. (2005). Development Economics: From the Poverty to the Wealth of Nations. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
10. Johnston, W. (1990). Structural Change and the Recognition of Diversity. American Journal of Agricultural Economics.72, pp. 1109-1123. American Agricultural Economics Association.
11. Kenneth, D., Caroline, J.& Lynk, E.L. (1992). Industrial Organization: Competition, Growth and Structural Change. London: Routledge.
12. Konieczna, J. & Konieczny, D. (2018). Structural changes in polish agriculture and rural areas following the accession to the EU. International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference Surveying Geology and Mining Ecology Management, SGEM, 18(2.2):971-978
13. Kumar, S., Singh, R. & Sharma, A. (2019). Structural transformation in agriculture and economic growth: a study in Himachal Pradesh. Agricultural Situation in India. 76(9):18-29
14. Langemejer, M. & Boehlje, M. (2017). Drivers of Consolidation and Structural Change in Production Agriculture. Economic Review, special issue, pp. 5-23.
15. Lee, M. (1992). A Survey of Agricultural Economics Literature: Agriculture in Economic Development 1940s to 1990s. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
16. Lewis, A. (1994). Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour. У R. Kanth, Paradigs in Economic Development: classic perspectives, critiques, and reflections (pp. 59-98). Armonk: Routledge.
17. Raiser, M. Schaffer, M., Schuchhardt, J. (2003). Benchmarking structural change in transition. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
18. Xiahui, L. (2020). Structural changes and economic growth in China over the past 40 years of reform and opening-up. China Political Economy, 2020, Vol. 3, Issue 1, pp. 19-38.
19. Xinshen, D., Hazell, P., Resnick, D.& Thurlow, J. (2007). The Role of Agriculture in Development: Implications for Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute.
20. Đekić, S., Jovanović, S., Stanojević, J. (2013). The role of agriculture in ensuring food security. Dependability and Quality Management - ICDQM (pр. 639-644). Prijevor: Research Center for Dependability and Quality Management.
21. Nikolić, I., Filipović, S., & Miljković, M. (2010). The potential of Serbian agribusiness sector. Industrija, 38(4), 203-222.
22. Sanders N.R. (2000). Forecasting guidelines and methods. In: Swamidass P.M. (eds) Encyclopedia of Production and Manufacturing Management. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-0612-8_362
23. Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (a). (2020). Retrieved: www.stat.gov.rs.
24. Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (b). (2019). Economic accounts for agriculture in the Republic of Serbia, 2009-2019. Belgrade.
25. Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (c). (2009-2020). The Statistical Yearbook.
26. Stanojević, J., Stanišić, T. (2015). Značaj agrarnog sektora kroz istoriju ekonomske misli. Peščanik, No 13, Istrorijski arhiv Nis. [in English: Stanojević, J., Stanišić, T. (2015). The importance of the agricultural sector throughout the history of economic thought. Peščanik, No 13, Historical Archives of Nis.]
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Published
2021-09-25
How to Cite
Stanojević, J., Radivojević, V., & Stanišić, T. (2021). FORECASTING THE MAIN STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN AGRICULTURE OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA. Ekonomika Poljoprivrede, 68(3), 759–772. https://doi.org/10.5937/ekoPolj2103759S
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