FORECASTING CORN PRODUCTION INDICATORS IN THE REPUBLIC OF SRPSKA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5937/ekoPolj1903681NKeywords:
corn, production, The Republic of Srpska, forecastAbstract
The aim of this paper is to formulate quantitative models to predict future trends in corn production in the Republic of Srpska. The applied research methods are the descriptive analysis method, and the analytical statistical method, i.e. the Box-Jenkins Model based on the ARIMA model (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). The results of the research show that the corn production indicators, as the most important crop in the Republic of Srpska, will, despite the oscillations, show an increase in the last year of the five-year prediction period (2018-2022) compared to the previously analysed twenty-two year period (1996-2017). The formulation of such forecasting models is a good basis for planning the overall crop production in the Republic of Srpska.
Downloads
Download data is not yet available.
References
1. Adanacioglu, H., & Yercan, M. (2012). An analysis of tomato prices at wholesale level in Turkey: an application of SARIMA model, Custos e @gronegocio on line 8(4), 52-75.
2. Amin. M., Amanullah, M., & Akbar, A. (2014). Time Series Modeling for Forecasting Wheat Production of Pakistan. The Journal of Animal & Plant Sciences, 24(5), 1444-1451.
3. Badmus, M.A., & Ariyo, O.S. (2011). Forecasting Cultivated Areas and Production of Maize in Nigerian using ARIMA Model. Asian Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 3(3), 171-176.
4. Box, G., & Jenkins, G. (1970). Time Series of Analysis, Forecasting and Control, San Francisco: Holden-Day
5. Garcia-Martinez, M.C., Caballero, P., & Fernandez-Zamudio, M.A. (2008). Price Trends in greenhouse tomato and pepper and choice of adoptable technology. Spanish Journal of Agricultural Research, 6(3), 320-332.
6. Glamočlija, Đ. (2012). Specialty fields crop production, grains and legumes, University of Belgrade, The Faculty of Agriculture, Zemun, Serbia, 19-37. [ In Serbian: Glamočlija, Đ. (2012). Posebno ratrastvo, žita i zrnene mahunarke, Univerzitet u Beogradu, Poljoprivredni fakultet, Zemun, Srbija, 19-37.].
7. Ilić, I., Jovanović, S., & Milić, J.V. (2016). Forecasting corn production in Serbia using ARIMA model. Economics of Agriculture, 63(4), 1141-1156.
8. Iqbal, M. Ch., Jamshaid, T. M., & Rashid, A.Q.A. (2016). Forecasting of Wheat Production: A Comparative Study of Pakistan and India. International Journal of Advanced Research (IJAR), 4(12), 698-709. doi: 10.21474/IJAR01/2449
9. Ivanišević, D. (2015). Forecast of Production-Economic Parameters for Vegetable Farming in Serbia, doctoral thesis, University of Novi Sad, The Faculty of Agriculture, Serbia. [In Serbian: Ivanišević, D. (2015). Predviđanje proizvodno ekonomskih parametara u povrtarstvu u Srbiji. Univerzitet Novi Sad, Poljoprivredni fakultet, Srbija].
10. Jadhav, V., Chinnappa, R. B.V., & Gaddi, G.M. (2017). Application of ARIMA Model for Forecasting Agricultural Prices, Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, 19, 981-992.
11. Maletić, R., & Popović, B. (2010). Production of Basic Agricultural Crops AP Vojvodina-Trends and Municipalities Ranking. Economics of Agriculture, 57(2), 275-292. [In Serbian: Maletić Radojka, Popović Blaženka (2010). Proizvodnja osnovnih ratarskih kultura u AP Vojvodini-Tendencije i rangiranje opština. Ekonomika poljoprivrede, 57(2), 275-292.].
12. Muhammad, F., Siddique, M., Bashir, M., & Ahmad, S. (1992). Forecasting Rice Production in Pakistan using ARIMA Models. J. Anim. Plant. Sci., 2, 27-31.
13. Mutavdžić, B. (2009). Analyzes and prediction of economics parameters in agriculture of Vojvodina, doctoral thesis, University of Belgrade, The Faculty of Agriculture, Zemun, Serbia. [In Serbian: Mutavdžić Beba (2009). Analiza i predviđanje proizvodno-ekonomskih parametara u poljoprivredi Vojvodine, doktorska disertacija, Univerzitet u Beogradu, Poljoprivredni fakultet, Zemun, Srbija.].
14. Mutavdžić, B., & Novković, N. (2016). Analysis and prediction of production parameters of cabbage in Serbia. XXI Savetovanje o biotehnologiji sa međunarodnim učešćem-Thematic Proceedings I, Faculty of Agronomy, Čačak, 167-172. Retrieved from https://www.afc.kg.ac.rs/files/data/sb/zbornik/Zbornik_radova_SB2016_-_1.pdf
15. Mutavdžić, B., Novković, N., Vukelić, N., & Radojević, V. (2016). Analysis and Prediction of Prices and Price Partyes of Corn and Wheat in Serbia. Journal on Processing and Energy in Agriculture, 20(2), 106-108. [In Serbian: Mutavdžić Beba, Novković, N., Vukelić Nataša, Radojević, Veljko. (2016). Analiza i predviđanje cena i pariteta cena pšenice i kukuruza u Srbiji, Časopis za procesnu tehniku i energetiku u poljoprivredi, 20(2), 106-108.].
16. Novković, N., Mutavdžić, B., & Radojević, V. (2006). Changes in Animal Production in Vojvodina, at the begining of XXI Centuries. Contemporary Agriculture, 55(1-2), 14-20. [In Serbian: Novković, N., Mutavdžić, B., Radojević, V. (2006). Kretanje stočarske proizvodnje u Vojvodini početkom XXI veka, Savremena poljoprivreda, 55(1-2), 14-20.].
17. Novković, N., Mutavdžić, B., Ilin, Ž., & Ivanišević, D. (2013). Potato Production Forecasting. Agro-knowledge Journal, 14(3), 345-355. [In Serbian: Новковић, Н., Мутавџић Беба, Илин, Ж., Иванишевић, Д. (2013). Предвиђање производње кромпира. Агрознање, 14(3), 345-355].
18. Ortiz, R. S., Taba, S., Chavez T., Mezzalama, V. H., Xu, Y., Yan, J., & Crouch, J. H. (2010). Conserving and enhancing maize genetic resources as global public goods-A perspective from CIMMYT. Crop Science, 50: 13-28.
19. Qureshi, K., Akhtar, A.B., Aslam, M., Ullah, A., & Hussain, A. (1992). An analysis of the Relative contribution of area and yield to total production of Wheat and Maize in Pakistan. J. Agric. Sci., 29. 166-169.
20. Ramesh, D., Soumen, P., & Srinivasa, V.R. (2015). Time Series Modeling for Trend Anaysis and Forecasting Wheat Production in India. International Journal of Agriculture, Environment & Biotechnolog, 8, 303.
21. Rosengrant, M. C., Ringler, S. Msangi, T. Sulser, T. Zhu, S. Cline (2008). International Model for Policy Analisys of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model Description, International Food Research Institute: Washington, D.C.
22. Saeed, N., Saeed, A., Zakria, M., & Bajwa, T. (2000). Forecasting of Wheat Production in Pakistan using ARIMA model. Journal of Agriculture and Biology, 2(4), 352-353.
23. Schgiwietzke, S., Kim, Y., Ximenez, E., Mosier, N., & Ladish, M. (2008). Ethanol production from maize. Molecular Genetic Approaches to Maize Improvement, part VI, 347-364.
24. Suleman, I., & Sarpong, S. (2012). Production and Consumption of Corn in Ghana: Forcasting Using ARIMA Models. Asian Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 4(4), 249-253.
25. The Institute of Statistics of the Republic of Srpska, Retrieved from http://www.rzs.rs.ba (February 17, 2019)
26. Torney, F., Moeller, L., Scarpa, A., & Wang, K. (2007). Genetic engineering approaches to improve bioethanol production from maize. Current Opinion in Biotechnology, 18, 193-199.
2. Amin. M., Amanullah, M., & Akbar, A. (2014). Time Series Modeling for Forecasting Wheat Production of Pakistan. The Journal of Animal & Plant Sciences, 24(5), 1444-1451.
3. Badmus, M.A., & Ariyo, O.S. (2011). Forecasting Cultivated Areas and Production of Maize in Nigerian using ARIMA Model. Asian Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 3(3), 171-176.
4. Box, G., & Jenkins, G. (1970). Time Series of Analysis, Forecasting and Control, San Francisco: Holden-Day
5. Garcia-Martinez, M.C., Caballero, P., & Fernandez-Zamudio, M.A. (2008). Price Trends in greenhouse tomato and pepper and choice of adoptable technology. Spanish Journal of Agricultural Research, 6(3), 320-332.
6. Glamočlija, Đ. (2012). Specialty fields crop production, grains and legumes, University of Belgrade, The Faculty of Agriculture, Zemun, Serbia, 19-37. [ In Serbian: Glamočlija, Đ. (2012). Posebno ratrastvo, žita i zrnene mahunarke, Univerzitet u Beogradu, Poljoprivredni fakultet, Zemun, Srbija, 19-37.].
7. Ilić, I., Jovanović, S., & Milić, J.V. (2016). Forecasting corn production in Serbia using ARIMA model. Economics of Agriculture, 63(4), 1141-1156.
8. Iqbal, M. Ch., Jamshaid, T. M., & Rashid, A.Q.A. (2016). Forecasting of Wheat Production: A Comparative Study of Pakistan and India. International Journal of Advanced Research (IJAR), 4(12), 698-709. doi: 10.21474/IJAR01/2449
9. Ivanišević, D. (2015). Forecast of Production-Economic Parameters for Vegetable Farming in Serbia, doctoral thesis, University of Novi Sad, The Faculty of Agriculture, Serbia. [In Serbian: Ivanišević, D. (2015). Predviđanje proizvodno ekonomskih parametara u povrtarstvu u Srbiji. Univerzitet Novi Sad, Poljoprivredni fakultet, Srbija].
10. Jadhav, V., Chinnappa, R. B.V., & Gaddi, G.M. (2017). Application of ARIMA Model for Forecasting Agricultural Prices, Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, 19, 981-992.
11. Maletić, R., & Popović, B. (2010). Production of Basic Agricultural Crops AP Vojvodina-Trends and Municipalities Ranking. Economics of Agriculture, 57(2), 275-292. [In Serbian: Maletić Radojka, Popović Blaženka (2010). Proizvodnja osnovnih ratarskih kultura u AP Vojvodini-Tendencije i rangiranje opština. Ekonomika poljoprivrede, 57(2), 275-292.].
12. Muhammad, F., Siddique, M., Bashir, M., & Ahmad, S. (1992). Forecasting Rice Production in Pakistan using ARIMA Models. J. Anim. Plant. Sci., 2, 27-31.
13. Mutavdžić, B. (2009). Analyzes and prediction of economics parameters in agriculture of Vojvodina, doctoral thesis, University of Belgrade, The Faculty of Agriculture, Zemun, Serbia. [In Serbian: Mutavdžić Beba (2009). Analiza i predviđanje proizvodno-ekonomskih parametara u poljoprivredi Vojvodine, doktorska disertacija, Univerzitet u Beogradu, Poljoprivredni fakultet, Zemun, Srbija.].
14. Mutavdžić, B., & Novković, N. (2016). Analysis and prediction of production parameters of cabbage in Serbia. XXI Savetovanje o biotehnologiji sa međunarodnim učešćem-Thematic Proceedings I, Faculty of Agronomy, Čačak, 167-172. Retrieved from https://www.afc.kg.ac.rs/files/data/sb/zbornik/Zbornik_radova_SB2016_-_1.pdf
15. Mutavdžić, B., Novković, N., Vukelić, N., & Radojević, V. (2016). Analysis and Prediction of Prices and Price Partyes of Corn and Wheat in Serbia. Journal on Processing and Energy in Agriculture, 20(2), 106-108. [In Serbian: Mutavdžić Beba, Novković, N., Vukelić Nataša, Radojević, Veljko. (2016). Analiza i predviđanje cena i pariteta cena pšenice i kukuruza u Srbiji, Časopis za procesnu tehniku i energetiku u poljoprivredi, 20(2), 106-108.].
16. Novković, N., Mutavdžić, B., & Radojević, V. (2006). Changes in Animal Production in Vojvodina, at the begining of XXI Centuries. Contemporary Agriculture, 55(1-2), 14-20. [In Serbian: Novković, N., Mutavdžić, B., Radojević, V. (2006). Kretanje stočarske proizvodnje u Vojvodini početkom XXI veka, Savremena poljoprivreda, 55(1-2), 14-20.].
17. Novković, N., Mutavdžić, B., Ilin, Ž., & Ivanišević, D. (2013). Potato Production Forecasting. Agro-knowledge Journal, 14(3), 345-355. [In Serbian: Новковић, Н., Мутавџић Беба, Илин, Ж., Иванишевић, Д. (2013). Предвиђање производње кромпира. Агрознање, 14(3), 345-355].
18. Ortiz, R. S., Taba, S., Chavez T., Mezzalama, V. H., Xu, Y., Yan, J., & Crouch, J. H. (2010). Conserving and enhancing maize genetic resources as global public goods-A perspective from CIMMYT. Crop Science, 50: 13-28.
19. Qureshi, K., Akhtar, A.B., Aslam, M., Ullah, A., & Hussain, A. (1992). An analysis of the Relative contribution of area and yield to total production of Wheat and Maize in Pakistan. J. Agric. Sci., 29. 166-169.
20. Ramesh, D., Soumen, P., & Srinivasa, V.R. (2015). Time Series Modeling for Trend Anaysis and Forecasting Wheat Production in India. International Journal of Agriculture, Environment & Biotechnolog, 8, 303.
21. Rosengrant, M. C., Ringler, S. Msangi, T. Sulser, T. Zhu, S. Cline (2008). International Model for Policy Analisys of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model Description, International Food Research Institute: Washington, D.C.
22. Saeed, N., Saeed, A., Zakria, M., & Bajwa, T. (2000). Forecasting of Wheat Production in Pakistan using ARIMA model. Journal of Agriculture and Biology, 2(4), 352-353.
23. Schgiwietzke, S., Kim, Y., Ximenez, E., Mosier, N., & Ladish, M. (2008). Ethanol production from maize. Molecular Genetic Approaches to Maize Improvement, part VI, 347-364.
24. Suleman, I., & Sarpong, S. (2012). Production and Consumption of Corn in Ghana: Forcasting Using ARIMA Models. Asian Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 4(4), 249-253.
25. The Institute of Statistics of the Republic of Srpska, Retrieved from http://www.rzs.rs.ba (February 17, 2019)
26. Torney, F., Moeller, L., Scarpa, A., & Wang, K. (2007). Genetic engineering approaches to improve bioethanol production from maize. Current Opinion in Biotechnology, 18, 193-199.
Downloads
Published
2019-09-29
How to Cite
Nedeljković, M., Mutavdžić, B., Zoranović, T., & Suzić, R. (2019). FORECASTING CORN PRODUCTION INDICATORS IN THE REPUBLIC OF SRPSKA. Economics of Agriculture, 66(3), 681–690. https://doi.org/10.5937/ekoPolj1903681N
Issue
Section
Original scientific papers
