PRODUCTION AND TENDENCY IN MILK PROCESSING IN MONTENEGRO
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5937/ekoPolj2002391JKeywords:
Milk, production, procession, investments, seasonal ARIMA modelsAbstract
Production and processing of milk represents a very important sector of the agricultural industry of Montenegro. Milk production is performed primarily on family farms, from which a small percentage is further placed in processing facilities. In addition to favourable conditions for cattle rearing and milk production, production results are modest. ARIMA model was applied in order to forecast the quantities of cows milk that will be collected and processed in 2019 into fermented dairy products and drinking milk. The observed and obtained data show the presence of seasonal and trend component in time series. Furthermore, the analysis highlighted the importance of milk processing on family farms, in addition to the need for investment in its improvement. The paper also analyzes investment support referring to the milk processing facilities in Montenegro.
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References
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2. Deshmukh, S.,S., Paramasivam, R. (2016). Forecasting of milk production in India with ARIMA and VAR time series models, Asian J. Dairy & Food Res, 35(1) 2016: 17-22, DOI: 10.18805/ajdfr.v35i1.9246
3- Eurostat (2019). Production and utilization of milk on the farm - annual data, Retrieved from https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=apro_mk_farm&lang=en (October 15, 2019)
4. Ferhan, A., Shah, H., Raza, I. and Saboor, A. (2011). Forecasting milk production in Pakistan, Pakistan J. Agric. Res. Vol 24 No. 1-4, 82-85
5. Gerz, A., Dupont, F. (2006). Comte cheese in France: Impact of a geographical indication on rural development. Origine-based products, lessons for pro-poor market development, Bulletin 372, Amsterdam, Netherlads, 75 pp.
6. Gujarati, D.N. (2003). Basic Econometrics, McGraw-Hill Higher Education, New York, United States
7. Ivanović, L. (2018). Possibilities for development of extensive forms of livestock production in Serbia. Doctoral thesis. Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad [in Serbian:Ivanović, L. (2018). Mogućnosti razvoja ekstenzivnih oblika stočarske proizvodnje u Srbiji. Doktorska disertacija. Poljoprivredni fakultet, Univerzitet u Novom Sadu]
8. Jovanović, M., Despotović, Aleksandra, Bulatović, B. (2001). Changes of the milk and dairy products consumption with changes of the income, Agriculture and forestry, Vol 47 (1-2), Podgorica, 101-114 [in Serbian: Jovanović, M., Despotović Aleksandra, Bulatović, B. (2001): Promjena potrošnje mlijeka I mliječnih proizvoda sa promjenom dohotka, Poljoprivreda i šumarstvo, Vol 47 (1-2), Podgorica, 101-104]
9. Kovačić, Z. (1995). Time Series Analysis, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, Belgrade [in Serbian: Kovačić, Z. (1995). Analiza vremenskih serija, Ekonomski fakultet, Univerzitet u Beogradu, Beograd]
10. Mihailović, Šumadinka, Vukelić, Nataša, Novković, N., Mutavdžić, Beba (2019). Vegetable prices in serbia – tendencies and forecasting, Economics of Agriculture, Year 66, No. 2, Belgrade, 485-498, doi:10.5937/ekoPolj1902485S
11. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (2015). Agriculture and Rural Development Strategy 2015-2020, Podgorica, 1-65 [in Serbian: Ministarsrvo poljoprivrede i ruralnog razvoja (2015). Strategija razvoja poljoprivrede i ruralnih područja 2015-2020, Podgorica, 1-65]
12. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, (2018). National Programme for Improving the Quality of Raw Milk with a Plan for the Management of Nonconforming Raw Milk, Podgorica, 4-25 [in Serbian: Ministarstvo poljoprivrede i ruralnog razvoja, (2018). Nacionalni program za unapređenje kvaliteta sirovog mlijeka sa planom za postupanje sa neusaglašenim sirovim mlijekom, Podgorica, 4-25]
13. Mladenović, Z. & Nojković, A. (2015). Applied time series analysis, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, Belgrade [in Serbian: Mladenović, Z. & Nojković, A. (2015). Primenjena analiza vremenskih serija, Ekonomski fakultet Univerziteta u Beogradu, Beograd]
14. Mutavdžić, Beba, Novković, N., Vukelić, Nataša, Radojević, V. (2016). Analysis and prediction of prices and price partyes of corn and wheat in Serbia, Journal on Processing and Energy in Agriculture 20 (2016) 2, 106-108, UDK: 338:582.542.11
15. Novković, N., Mutavdzic, Beba, Somogy, S. (2010). Vegetable Prediction Models, School of Business, Issue 3/2010, 41-49, UDC 635.1/.8: 005.521 (497.113) [in Serbian: Novković, N., Mutavdžić, Beba, Šomođi, Š. (2010). Modeli za predviđanje u povrtarstvu, Škola biznisa, broj 3/2010, 41-49, UDC 635.1/.8:005.521(497.113)]
16. Perišić, P., Topisirović, G., Pešić-Mikulec, Dragana, Puja, P. (2011). Analysis of milk production factors at selected farms in Zlatibor District, Agricultural Engineering, No. 4, Faculty of Agriculture Zemun, Belgrade, 11-20 [in Serbian: Perišić, P., Topisirović, G., Pešić-Mikulec, Dragana, Puđa, P. (2011). Analiza faktora proizvodnje mleka na odabranim gazdinstvima Zlatiborskog okruga,Poljoprivredna tehnika, broj 4, Poljoprivredni fakultet Zemun, Beograd, 11-20]
17. Roest de K., Menghi, A. (2000): Reconsidering Traditional Food: The Case of Parmigiano Reggiano Cheese. Sociologia Ruralis, Vol 40, No. 4, 439-451.
18. Safa Abdelgadier, H., Hag Hamad, A., Abdelateif Hassan, I., Khalid Salih, M.M. (2018). Milk Production – Forecasting in Khartoum State, Sudan, IJRDO – Journal of Agriculture and Research, Volume-4, Issue-12, 8-13
19. Sanchez, L., Cabanas, G., Abad, Y., and Torres, V. (2014). Use of ARIMA models for predicting milk production. Case study in UBPC "Maniabo", Las Tunas, Cuban Journal of Aricultural Science, Volume 48, Number 3, 213-218 UDK: 338:582.542.11
20. Sankar, T.J., Prabakaran, R. (2012). Forecasting milk production in Tamilnadu, International Multidisciplinary Research Journal, 2 (1), 10-15
21. Santini, F., Guri, F., Gomez, S. (2013): Labeling of agricultural and food products of mountain farming. JRC Scientific and policy reports, European Commision Joint Research, Centre institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Luxembourg, 1-154 pp.
22. Statistical Office of Montenegro - Monstat - (2016). Structure of agricultural farms in 2016, Podgorica, Retrieved from https://www.monstat.org (September 16, 2019) [in Serbian: Uprava za statistiku Crne Gore – Monstat – (2016). Struktura poljoprivrednih gazdinstava u 2016. godini, Podgorica, Retrieved from https://www.monstat.org (September 16, 2019)]
23. Statistical Office of Montenegro - Monstat - (2018). Numerous livestock and poultry status, milk, wool and egg production in Montenegro in 2018, Podgorica, Retrieved from https://www.monstat.org (December 9, 2019) [in Serbian: Uprava za statistiku Crne Gore – Monstat – (2018). Brojno stanje stoke i živine, proizvodnja mlijeka, vune i jaja u Crnoj Gori u 2018. godini, Podgorica, Retrieved from https://www.monstat.org (December 9, 2019)]
24. Statistical Office of Montenegro - Monstat - (2019). Statistical Yearbook 2019, Podgorica, 101-118 [in Serbian: Uprava za statistiku Crne Gore – Monstat – (2019). Statistički godišnjak 2019, Podgorica, 101-118]
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Published
2020-06-23
How to Cite
Joksimović, M., Ivanović, S., & Janković Šoja, S. (2020). PRODUCTION AND TENDENCY IN MILK PROCESSING IN MONTENEGRO. Economics of Agriculture, 67(2), 391–404. https://doi.org/10.5937/ekoPolj2002391J
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