ECONOMICAL POTATO PRODUCTION ACCORDING TO THE ARIMA MODELING APPROACH FOR CLIMATE ADAPTATION

Divna   Simić; Snežana   Janković; Dragana B.   Popović; Vojin  Cvijanović; Nataša   Tolimir

doi:10.59267/ekoPolj25031039S

Authors

Divna Simić Institute for Science Application in Agriculture, Blvd. Despota Stefana 68b, 11060 Belgrade, Serbia https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3854-2617
Snežana Janković Institute for Science Application in Agriculture, Blvd. Despota Stefana 68b, 11060 Belgrade, Serbia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0644-6690
Dragana B. Popović Faculty of Economics in Subotica, University of Novi Sad, Dr. Sime Miloševića 16, Novi Sad 210000, Serbia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3023-5877
Vojin Cvijanović Institute for Science Application in Agriculture, Blvd. Despota Stefana 68b, 11060 Belgrade, Serbia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1347-952X
Nataša Tolimir Institute for Science Application in Agriculture, Blvd. Despota Stefana 68b, 11060 Belgrade, Serbia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8464-8992

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.59267/ekoPolj25031039S

Keywords:

Economical potato production, yield projection, climate change and sustainable agriculture, ARIMA model

Abstract

In is evident that global climate change, marked by decreased rainfall and higher temperatures affecting potato economical production, therefore they are yield projections are a crucial element in agricultural planning. Climate change, especially drought, poses significant challenges, necessitating adaptive strategies to mitigate adverse impacts. Potatoes, as a vital food crop, hold exceptional nutritional, biological, agronomic, and economic importance. This study aims to project potato production, average yields, and cultivated areas in Serbia over the next three years using ARIMA models based on 19 years of time-series data. The model’s focus on short-term projections (2024–2026) aligns with Serbia’s need for immediate climate adaptation strategies. Model performance was validated using RMSE and AIC/ BIC metrics, with comparative analysis against ETS benchmarks. The results inform strategic responses to climate risks, provide a valuable approach to yield projection, advancing sustainable agriculture, food security, and facilitating complex production planning.

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