ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE RATE IN SERBIA AND ITS INFLUENCE ON AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

Authors

  • Brankica Pažun Alfa University, Faculty of Engineering Management
  • Zlatko Langovi?, Ph.D. John Naisbitt University, Faculty of Business Studies, Belgrade
  • Ana Langovi?-Mili?evi?, Ph.D. University of Kragujevac, Faculty of Hotel Management and Tourism, Vrnjacka Banja

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5937/ekoPolj1601047P

Keywords:

ARDL, assessment, equilibrium real exchange rate, ERER, Serbia

Abstract

This paper attempts to empirically estimate equilibrium exchange rate level of Serbian dinar. In that purpose reduced form equilibrium real exchange rate approach (ERER) is used, developed by IMFs Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER). The research was made by using ARDL approach in the single-country analysis. It has been started from dynamic model which has described relation between real effective exchange rate and a set of fundamental variables. Bound test has been provided due to determination of the long-term relationship existence between variables. F-statistics has been used for long-term relationship testing between dependent variable and set of indicators. Since assumptions were met, least squares method was used for coeffcient estimation. The results have shown constant dinars overvaluation over medium term.

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Published

2016-01-31

How to Cite

Pažun, B., Langović, Z., & Langović-Milićević, A. (2016). ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE RATE IN SERBIA AND ITS INFLUENCE ON AGRICULTURAL SECTOR. Ekonomika Poljoprivrede, 63(1), 47–59. https://doi.org/10.5937/ekoPolj1601047P

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Original scientific papers