FORECASTING CORN PRODUCTION IN SERBIA USING ARIMA MODEL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5937/ekoPolj1604141IKeywords:
corn production, export chances, Box Jenkins methodology, ARIMA model, SerbiaAbstract
Agricultural crop production is closely related to climate, as a decisive success factor. Temperature fluctuations and changes in the volume of precipitation are the main factors affecting the growth and development of crops, and, ultimately, the quantity produced. Corn is the most common crop necessary to provide for domestic needs, and a strategic product for export. Production of corn in the period from 1947 to 2014 in Serbia had an oscillatory trend, with signifcant jumps and falls in production. The subject of this paper is the forecasting of future trends in corn production in Serbia. Building on the subject, the purpose of this paper is to create the model for forecasting future corn production and establishingits trends.
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References
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2. Baldigara, T., Mamula, M. (2015): Modelling international tourism demand using seasonal ARIMA models, Tourism and Hospitality Management, vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 9-31 (available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/279225215_Modelling_international_tourism_demand_using_seasonal_arima_models)
3. Borojević, S. (1991): Principi i metodi oplemenjivanja bilja, Naučna knjiga, Beograd, Srbija
4. Box, G., Jenkins, G. (1970): Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, San Francisco: Holden-Day
5. Bursać, M.N., Ivanović, R., Nikolić, M. (2015): Agricultural production in the Niš valley – agroclimatic conditions, Teme, no. 1, pp. 275-289 (available at: http://teme2.junis.ni.ac.rs/index.php/TEME/article/view/2/34)
6. Etuk, E. H. (2012): Seasonal ARIMA model to Nigerian Consumer Price Index Data, American Journal of Scientifc and Industrial Research, vol. 3, no. 5, pp. 283-287. (available at: http://www.scihub.org/AJSIR/PDF/2012/5/AJSIR-3-5-283-287.pdf)
7. Glamočlija, Đ., Blažić, M., Živanović, Lj., Ikanović, J. (2007): Proizvodnja kukuruza u uslovima intenzivne ishrane biljaka azotom. Zbornik radova XXI savetovanja agronoma, veterinara i tehnologa, Beograd, vol. 12, no. 1-2, pp. 31-45 (available at: http://www.pkbae.rs/fles/pdf/2007-vol1-2.pdf)
8. Đekić, S. (2010): Agrarni menadžment, Ekonomski fakultet u Nišu, Niš, Srbija
9. Iqbal, N., Bakhsh, K. H. U. D. A., Maqbool, A. S. I. F., Ahmad, A. S. (2005): Use of the ARIMA model for forecasting wheat area and production in Pakistan, Journal of agriculture & Social sciences, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 120-122. (available at: https://www.academia.edu/705606/Use_of_the_ARIMA_model_for_forecasting_wheat_area_and_production_in_Pakistan)
10. Kostić, Z., Lepojević, V., Janković-Milić, V. (2016): Modeling monthly inflation in the Republic of Serbia, measured by consumer price index, Facta Universitatis, Series: Economics and Organization vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 145-159. (available at: http://casopisi.junis.ni.ac.rs/index.php/FUEconOrg/article/view/1742/1266)
11. Lekić, S., Mirić, M., Petrović, R., Dražić, S., Stančić, I. (2004): Tehnologija proizvodnje semena, Društvo selekcionera i semenara Republike Srbije, Beograd, Srbija
12. Marković, I., Marković, M. (2014): Agricultural protectionism of the european union in the conditions of international trad liberalization, Economics of Agriculture, no. 2, pp. 423–440 (available at: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/175292/2/11%20EP%202%202014-11.pdf )
13. Mladenović, J., Lepojević, V., Janković-Milić, V. (2016): Modelling and Prognosis of the Export of the Republic of Serbia by Using Seasonal Holt-Winters and Arima Method, Economic themes vol. 54, no. 2, pp. 233-260. (available at: https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/ethemes.2016.54.issue-2/ethemes-2016-0012/ethemes-2016-0012.xml)
14. Olanrewaju, K. O., Olakunle, O. A., Emmanuel, A. O. (2014): Forecast Performance of Multiplicative Seasonal Arima Model: an Application to Naira/ Us Dollar Exchange Rate, American Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 172- 178. (available at: http://pubs.sciepub.com/ajams/2/3/14/)
15. Okasha, K.M., Abu Shanab, M.M.D. (2014): Forecasting Monthly Water Production in Gaza City Using a Seasonal ARIMA Model Scholars Journal of Physics. Mathematics and Statistics, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 61-67 (available at: http://saspjournals.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/SJPMS-1261-70.pdf)
16. Ranđelović, V., Prodanović, S., Despotović, S., Glamočlija Đ. (2010): Prinos kukuruza različitih FAO grupa zrenja u funkciji padavina tokom ASI perioda, Zbornik radova XXIV savetovanja agronoma, veterinara i tehnologa. Beograd, vol. 16, no. 1-2, pp. 103-111(available at: http://www.pkbae.rs/fles/pdf/2010VOL1_2.pdf)
17. Vasquez, R., (2011): Introducciόn a los modelos ARIMA, Series de tiempo – Modelos ARIMA.
18. Sabovljević, R., Aćimović, B., Simić, D., Goranović, Đ., Milosavljević, S., Stanković, Z. (2008): Varijabilnost i korelacije promena tokom klijanja hibridnog semena kukuruza. V Simpozijum iz Selekcije i Semenarstva, Vrnjačka Banja
19. Subić, J., Popović, V. Ž., Vuković, P. (2005): Održivo korišćenje zemljišta u poljoprivredi. Ekonomika Poljoprivrede, vol. 51, no. 5-6, pp. 26-35
20. Tabaković, M. (2012) Uticaj vremenskih uslova, zemljišta i genotipske kombinacije na osobine hibridnog semena kukuruza, Poljoprivredni fakultet Beograd, Beograd, Srbija
21. Agricultural Marketing Information System of Serbia http://www.stips.minpolj.gov.rs/ (20.2.2016.)
22. Agriculture and Rural Development Strategy of the Republic of Serbia for the period 2014–2024, http://uap.gov.rs/wp-content/themes/uap/STRATEGIJA%202014-2020%20.pdf (22.2.2016.)
23. Index Mundi (2014) Corn Production by Country in 1000 MT, http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?commodity=corn (25.2.2016.)
24. International Grains Council, http://www.igc.int/en/downloads/grainsupdate/IGC_5yearprojections2015.pdf (03.3.2016.)
25. Serbian Chamber of Commerce http://www.pks.rs/PrivredaSrbije.aspx?id=13 (07.3.2016.)
26. Statistical Offce of the Republic of Serbia http://webrzs.stat.gov.rs/WebSite/Public/PageView.aspx?pKey=138 (10.3.2016.)
27. Žita Srbije http://www.zitasrbije.rs/ (17.2.2016.)
28. The Statistic Portal, 2015 http://www.statista.com/statistics/254299/top-globalcorn-exporters/ (15.3.2016.)
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Published
2016-12-31
How to Cite
Ilić, I., Jovanović, S., & Janković – Milić, V. (2016). FORECASTING CORN PRODUCTION IN SERBIA USING ARIMA MODEL. Ekonomika Poljoprivrede, 63(4), 1141–1156. https://doi.org/10.5937/ekoPolj1604141I
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