ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF TOMATO PRICE IN SERBIA

Authors

  • Dragan Ivaniševi?, PhD, M.A., Student University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad
  • Beba Mutavdži?, PhD University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad
  • Nebojša Novkovi?, PhD University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad
  • Nataša Vukeli?, PhD University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5937/ekoPolj1504951I

Keywords:

tomato, price, Serbia, prediction

Abstract

Tomato is one of the most important vegetable crops in Serbia. The average annual production of tomato has been about 174,000 tones. The topic of this research paper is the analysis of the changes and the future tendencies of the price parameters of tomato in Serbia, with the aim to forecast the real, absolute and relative (the parity with wheat) tomato price, i.e. to forecast the economic conditions for the production. The analysis of the time series (1994-2010) has been done by means of descriptive statistics, and the suitable ARIMA models were used for the forecast (2011-2015). The average real tomato price in the period 1994-2010 was 0.17 EUR/kg, and the average parity price for tomato/wheat was 1.5. The tendencies for the real growth of tomato price as well as the increase in the parity price with wheat were noticed during the analyzed period. A further real growth of tomato price and the growth of the parity with wheat have been predicted for the forecast period. This means that both absolute and relative price conditions in tomato production have been improving. The predicted tomato price in 2015 is 0.22 EUR/kg, and the parity price with wheat is 2.88, which is considerably higher than the average in the observed time period. The models for the forecast indicated that the previous years tomato price, i.e. parity, has a considerable influence over the formation of tomato price and the establishing of the parity with wheat.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

1. Adanacioglu, H., Yercan , M. (2012): An analysis of tomato prices at wholesale level in Turkey: an application of SARIMA model, Custos e @gronegócio on line - Vol. 8, No. 4 , pp 52-75, Out/Dez - 2012. ISSN 1808-2882, available at: http://www.custoseagronegocioonline.com.br/numero4v8/Tomato.pdf
2. Fasen, V. (2015): Dependence Estimation for High-frequency Sampled Multivariate CARMA Models, Article frst published online: 13 OCT 2015 , Scandinavian Journal of Statistics Early View (Online Version of Record published before inclusion in an issue), Nordic statistical associations, available at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/sjos.12180/pdf
3. García-Martínez, M. C., Caballero, P., Fernández-Zamudio, M. A. (2008): Price trends in greenhouse tomato and pepper and choice of adoptable technology, Spanish Journal of Agricultural Research, Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria (INIA), Vol. 6, No. 3, pp.320-332.
4. Mutavdžić, B. (2009): Analyzes and prediction of economics parameters u agriculture of Vojvodina, doctoral thesis, University of Belgrade, The Faculty of Agriculture, Zemun, Serbia
5. Mutavdžić, B., Novković, N., Ivanišević, D. (2011): Tendencies of vegetables production development in Serbia, Proceedings of Abstracts XVI International scientifc-profesional meeting of agronomists of Republic of Srpska, No. 22-25, Faculty of Agriculture, Banja Luka, Trebinje, p. 113.
6. Mutavdžić, B., Novković, N., Ivanišević, D. (2011а): Tendencies of vegetables production development in Serbia, Agroznanje, University of Banja Luka, Faculty of Agriculture, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 23-31.
7. Nikolić-Đorić, E., Čobanović, К., Mutavdžić, B. (2004): Evaluation of prediction GDP of agriculture of Serbia, Scientifc meeting with international participation Capital in Agriculture Thematic proceedings, University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Economics, Subotica, Palić, pp. 31-40.
8. Nikolić-Đorić, E., Novković, N., Rodić, V., Aleksić, Lj. (1993): Selection of adequate model for prediction pigs/maze price parity, Agrieconomica, Institute of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad, No. 22, pp. 111-122.
9. Novkovic, N., Mutavdzic, B., Ivanišević, D. (2012): Development of Vegetable Production in Vojvodina Region, Book of Abstracts, I International Simposium and XVII Scientifc Conference of the Republic of Srpska, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Banja Luka and Biotechnical Faculty, University of Ljubljana p. 54.
10.Novković, N., Mutavdžić, B., Ilin, Ž., Ivanišević D. (2013): Forecasting of potato production, Book Abstracts, 26-29.3, II International and XVIII scientific conference of agronomists of the Republic of Srpska, The Faculty of Agriculture, The University of Banja Luka; Biotechnical Faculty, The University of Ljubljana, Trebinje, BIH, pp. 90-91.
11.Novković, N., Janković, N.,Mutavdžić, B. (2005/6): Analyzes and prediction of wheat/mineral fertilizers price parity, Agrieconomica, Institute of Agricultural Economics and the Rural Sociology, Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad, Serbia, No. 34-35, pp. 65-71
12.Novković, N., Mutavdžić, B., Ilin, Ž., Ivanišević, D. (2013а): Potato Production Forecasting, Agroznanje, Banja Luka, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 345-355.
13.Novković, N.,Mutavdžić, B., Radojević, V. (2006): Changes of cattle breeding in Vojvodina at the begin of XXI century, Contemporary Agriculture, Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad, Vol. 55, No. 1-2, pp. 14-20.
14.Novković, N., Rodić, V., Nikolić-Đorić, Е.,Aleksić, Lj. (1994): Dependences pigs/maze price parity from pigs and maze trade, and prediction until the end of the century, Agrieconomica, The Institute of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, The Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad, No. 23, pp. 77-88.
15.Qaddoum, K., Hines, E. L., Iliescu, D. D. (2013): Yield Prediction for Tomato Greenhouse Using EFuNN, ISRN Artifcial Intelligence, Vol. 13, p. 9.
16.Yining, C. (2015): Semi-parametric Time Series Models with Log-concave Innovations: Maximum Likelihood Estimation and its Consistency, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, March 2015, Nordic statistical associations, Vol. 42, No. 1, pp. 1–31.
17.Zhang, J. H., Kong, F. T., Wu, J. Z., Zhu, M. S., Xu, K., Liu, J. J. (2014): Tomato Prices Time Series Prediction Model Based on Wavelet Neural Network, Applied Mechanics and Materials, Chapter 3: Numerical Methods, Computation Methods and Algorithms for Modeling, Simulation and Optimization, Data Mining and Data Processing, Vols. 644-650, pp. 2636-2640

Downloads

Published

2015-12-31

How to Cite

Ivanišević, D., Mutavdžić, B., Novković, N., & Vukelić, N. (2015). ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF TOMATO PRICE IN SERBIA. Ekonomika Poljoprivrede, 62(4), 951–962. https://doi.org/10.5937/ekoPolj1504951I

Issue

Section

Original scientific papers

Most read articles by the same author(s)

<< < 1 2 3 > >>