SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL PATTERN OF RICE YIELD GROWTH IN ASIAN COUNTRIES FROM 1961 TO 2016: AN EXPLORATORY ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

Debabrata Mukhopadhyay

doi:10.5937/ekoPolj2101023M

Authors

Debabrata Mukhopadhyay Department of Economics, West Bengal State University, Kolkata, India http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3159-8928

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5937/ekoPolj2101023M

Keywords:

rice production, yield, structural break, technology innovations, environmental challenges

Abstract

The present paper attempts to find out the spatial and temporal movement of rice yield in twelve countries in Asia which is its lifeline over the period 1961 to 2016 by following Bai-Perron multiple structural break tests. The results based on endogenous multiple structural break analysis show that many of these countries passed through several phases of acceleration and deceleration in rice yield over this period The results also demonstrate that except Japan, all the twelve countries considered in our study experienced at least one structural break in rice yield at level during the period 1961 to 2016. The acceleration phases of rice yield growth observed mostly during 1970s and 1980s are resulted from improved technological innovations in agriculture whereas deceleration phases observed in the last two decades are mainly caused by environmental challenges on rice production. Cross country yield gaps have been showing declining trend since early 80s.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

1. Awika, J.M. (2011). Major Cereal Grains Production and Use around the World. ACS Symposium Series, 11-13. https://doi.org/10.1021/bk-2011-1089.ch001
2. Bai, J., & Perron, P. (1998). Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes. Econometrica, 66(1), 47–78. https://doi.org/10.2307/2998540
3. Bai, J., & Perron, P. (2001). Multiple and Structural Change Models: A Simulation Analysis, Columbia University Press.
4. Bai, J., & Perron, P. (2003). Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Model. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18, 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.659
5. Bandula, N. (2017). Rice Production in Asia: Key to Global Food Security. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., India, Sect. B Biol. Sci, 88(4), 1323-1328. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40011-017-0867-7
6. Davies, D. (1967). Empty rice bowls. Far Eastern Economic Review Year Book, 19-34.
7. Dixon, J., Gulliver, A., Gibbon, D., & Hall, M. (2012). Farming systems and poverty. FAO.
8. Elert, E. (2014). Rice by the Numbers: A Good Grain. Nature, 514(7524), 50-61. https://doi.org/10.1038/514s50a
9. FAOSTAT, Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC (July 22, 2020).
10. FAO (2004). Proceedings of the FAO Rice Conference.
11. IRRI (2003). IRRIs environmental agenda. Unpublished draft document.
12. John, A., & Fielding, M. (2014). Rice production constraints and new challenges for South Asian smallholders: insights into de facto research priorities. Agriculture & Food Security, 3. https://doi.org/10.1186/2048-7010-3-18
13. Li, X., Liu, N., You, L., Ke, X., Liu, H., & Huang, M. (2016). Patterns of Cereal Yield Growth across China from 1980 to 2010 and Their Implications for Food Production and Food Security. PLoS ONE, 11(7). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0159061
14. Liu, Y., Wang, J., & Guo, L. (2009). The spatial-temporal changes of grain production and arable land in China. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 42(11), 4269–4274.
15. Monika, B.D. (2013). Food security in Asia: challenges, policies and implications. International Institute for Strategic Studies(IISS), London.
16. Mukhopadhyay, D. (2019). Structural break in rice production: A study with rice production. International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics, 7(1), 47-61. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.283882
17. Ohnuki-Tierney, E. (1994). Rice As Self, Princeton University Press.
18. Ray, D.K., Ramankutty, N., Mueller, N.D., West, P., & Foley, J. (2012). Recent Patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation. Nature Communications, 3. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms2296
19. Trébuil, G. (2004). Rice production systems in Asia: The constant presence of an essential cereal on a continent in mutation Geo-agronomist, Management of renewable resources and environment research unit (Green), Environments & Societies Department, Cirad, Montpellier, France. Co-Author with M. Hossain of "Le Riz: enjeux écologiques et économiques" published in 2004 by Editions Belin, Paris.
20. Tong, C., Hall, C.A.S., & Wang, H. (2003). Land use change in rice, wheat and maize production in China (1961–1998). Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment, 95(2), 523–536. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-8809(02)00182-2