DOES CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT PRICE OF VEGETABLES: EVIDENCE FROM TIGRAI, NORTHERN MOST ETHIOPIA
Although the agriculture economic sector in Ethiopia yet feeds enormous people, it’s negatively impacted by climate change thereby contributed to the lower production and productivity. The research dealt therefore on the price effect of climate change on vegetable using time series data collected from 2009 to 20015 in Tigrai, Ethiopia. A univariate econometric analysis and fnite distributed lag model were employed. In the descriptive part, due to climate change; tomato the vital vegetable consumed both in urban and rural population has recorded the highest inﬂation (211 percent) from 2009 to 2015 alone as compared to potato and onion. Whereas, potato and onion vegetables were rose up more than 152 and 154 percent consecutively on the same period. The average temperature increase of 1oC over the past seven years caused the price of tomato vegetable to increase more than threefold (310 percent) in 2015. Likewise, in the year 2010 as the temperature increased by 1oC, the average price of tomato increased close to 155 percent, ceteris paribus. Even the price of tomato vegetables raised 118 percent in 2011 as compared to 2009. In 2013 and 2014, a 1oC rise in the average temperature cause close to 58 percent and 23 percent increase in the price of tomato, ceteris paribus. Moreover, the price increment of potato and onion vegetables is high. So as to get healthy vegetables often at fair prices both by the poor and rich in both the rural and urban population, applying outstanding climate adaptive strategies is recommendable.
2. Aklilu, N., Yitagesu, K., Abiy, A., Tigist, A., Kidane, D., (2015): Onion production for Income Generation in Small Scale Irrigation Users Agropastoral households of Ethiopia. Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research.
3. Anum, F., Saleem, A., Sobia, N., (2015): Trends in Wholesale Prices of onion and potato in major markets of Pakistan: A time series Analysis. Pakistan J. Agric. Res. Vol. 28 No.2, 2015.
4. Ayana, S., Beyene, S., Nebil, S., Sertse, S., Tefera, T., (2011): FDRE Ministry of Agriculture. Agriculture Sector Programme of Plan on Adaptation to Climate Change.
5. Ben, G., Mehroosh, T., (2013): Welfare Analysis of Changing Food Prices: A Nonparametric Examination of Export Ban on Rice in India. ISSN 1753 – 5816. No. 177.
6. Bezabih, E., Amsalu, A., Tesfaye, B., Milkessa, T., (2014): Scoping Study on Vegetables Seed Systems and Policy in Ethiopia. Final Report Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
7. Bezabih, M., Mekonnen, A., (2014): Is it the climate or the weather? Differential economic impacts of climatic factors in Ethiopia. CCEP Working Paper No.165 and GRICCE Working Paper No.148.
8. CEEPA, WB, (2006): Climate Change and African Agriculture.Policy Note No. 25, August 2006, CEEPA.
9. Demeke, M., Pangrazio, G., Maetz, M., FAO, (2009): Country responses to the food security crisis: Nature and preliminary implications of the policies pursued.
10. Dick, D., Bo, S., (2012): African Development Bank Working Paper Series. The Dynamics of Inﬂation in Ethiopia and Kenya.
11. Dick, D., Josef, L., Yohannes, A., (2013): Inﬂation Dynamics and Food Prices in Ethiopia. Working Papers in Economics No. 478.
12. Donald, M., (2008): A Note on Rising Food Prices. The World Bank Development Prospects Group. Policy Research Working Paper 4682.
13. Emerta, A., (2010): Inﬂation and Economic Growth: An estimating a threshold level of inﬂation in Ethiopia. Ethiopian Economic Association, Ninth proceeding, Vo1.2 pages 203-233. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
14. Emerta, A., (2013): Climate Change, Growth, and Poverty in Ethiopia. CCAPS. Working Paper No.3.
15. Endale, G., (2013): An overview of horticultural crops with emphasis on vegetables production in Ethiopia. A country Report. Presented at the workshop Tutaabsoluta: Meeting the challenge of the tomato leaf miner.
16. Ethiopian Economic Association (EEA), (2008): Climate Change and Development Adaptation Measures Economic Focus, 11(1) Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
17. Ethiopian Investment Agency (EIA), (2012): Investment Opportunity Profle for the Production of Fruits and Vegetables in Ethiopia.
18. FAO, IFAD, IMF, OECD, UNCTAD, WFP, WB, WTO, IFPRI, UN HLTF, (2011): Price Volatility in Food and Agricultural Markets: Policy Responses Policy Report including contributions.
19. Fred, K., Hayden, S., (2008): Price Trends Are Similar for Fruits, Vegetables, and Snack Foods.
20. G. Erdal, H., Esengun, K., (2009): Agricultural Academy an Analysis of production and Price relationship for potato in Turkey: A distributed lag Model Application. Bulgarian Journal of Agricultural Science, 15 (No 3) 2009, 243-250.
21. Gebreegziabher, Z., Mekonnen, A., Deribe, R., Abera, S., Kassahun, M. M., (2014): Climate change can have signifcant negative impacts on Ethiopia’s agriculture. Research Brief. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. EDRI, EfD.
22. Gebrekiros, G., Araya, A., Yemane, T., (2016): Modeling impact of climate change and variability sorghum production in Southern zone of Tigray, Ethiopia. J Earth Sci clim change. 7:322 doi:10.4172/2157-7617.1000322.
23. Hamilton, J. D. (1994): Time Series Analysis. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
24. Honrao, P., (2014): Modeling Volatility of Price of Agricultural Products in India: Using Arima-Garch Applications. Volume : 4 | Issue : 9 | September 2014 | ISSN - 2249-555X.
25. IMF, WB, (2011): Responding to Global food price volatility and its impact on food security.
26. James, S., Mark, W., (2000): Introduction to Econometrics. Harvard and Princeton University.
27. Jeffrey, W., (2009): Introductory Econometrics. A Modern Approach. Michigan State of University. 4th Edition.
28. Jeni, K., Josef, L., (2007): Welfare Impacts of Food Price Inﬂation in Ethiopia.
29. John, (2007): Drought, Climate Change and Food Prices in Australia.
30. Josef, L., Dick, D., Yohannes, B., (2009): Inﬂation Dynamics and Food Prices in an Agricultural Economy. The Case of Ethiopia. Policy Research Working Paper 4969.
31. Kamau, G., (2014): Modeling of Wholesale Prices for Selected Vegetables Using Time Series Models in Kenya. I56/79482/2012.
32. Kassa Teka et al., (2012): Impact of climate change on small-holder farming: A case of Eastern Tigray, Northern Ethiopia. African Crop Science Journal, Vol.201, Issue Supplement S2,pp.337-347.
33. Khan, Sendanji, (2001): Threshold Effects in the Relationship between Inﬂation and Growth, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 48, No. 1.
34. Kof, A., (2012): The Impact of Rising Food Prices on Household Welfare in Ghana. Ph.D Research proposal. Policy Note”, World Bank (draft). University of Ghana Department of Economics.
35. Koyck, L. M., (1954): Distributed Lags and Investment Analysis. North Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam, pp. 21-50.
36. Maros, I., Will, M., (2008): Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries. Agricultural Economics 39 (2008) supplement 405-416.
37. Muluken, Y., (2015): Annual inﬂation rises 11.9% in one year. Monday, 10 August 2015 09:18.
38. N. Gujarati Damodar, (2004): Basic Econometrics. 4th edition.
39. Net Comm, (2014): Education Phase three. Food Price and Food Choice. Seventh Framework Programme.
40. Peter, O., (2010): Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector in the Semi-arid Region of Nigeria.2nd International Conference: Climate, Sustainability and Development in Semi-arid Regions.
41. Roll, R., (1984): Orange Juice and Weather. The American Economic Review, Vol., 74, No.5 (Dec., 1984), 861-880.
42. Seid, H., Yeshi, M., (2013): Enhancing communities’ adaptive capacity to climate change in drought-prone hotspots of the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia. Unpublished. Training Manual on Highland Fruit and Vegetable Production. ILRI- UNEP-Wollo University pilot project, Ethiopia.
43. Sohyun, K., Hyun, N., Cheolho, S., Youngchan, C., (2015): The Development and Evaluation of Onion and Cabbage Wholesale Price Forecasting Models. International Journal of Software Engineering and Its Applications. Vol.9,No.8(2015),pp.37-50 http://dx.doi.org/10.14257/ijseia.2015.9.8.04.
44. Tom, C., Joe, R., (2008): Food Price Inﬂation: Causes and Impacts.
45. UNDP, (2014): Country Economics Brief. Ethiopia. Analysis Issue No.1/Feb.2014.
46. WB, (2005): Explaining Sources of Food Price Inﬂation in Ethiopia: “A Just in Time Explaining Food Price Inﬂation; Policy Note by the World Bank.
47. WB, (2011): Food, Financial Crises, and Complex Derivatives: A Tale of High Stakes Innovation and Diversifcation.
48. Weldesilassie, A., Assefa, B., Hagos, A., (2015): Productivity and Welfare Impact of Climate Change in Sugarcane and Cotton Producing Regions of Ethiopia. EDRI, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
49. WFP, (2011): Policy options to address price volatility and high prices.
50. WFP, FAO, (2011): The State of Food Insecurity in the World. Economic crises – impacts and lessons learned.
51. WFP, FAO, IFAD, (2011): The State of Food Insecurity in the World. How does international price volatility affect domestic economies and food security?