ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE RATE IN SERBIA AND ITS INFLUENCE ON AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

  • Brankica Pažun Alfa University, Faculty of Engineering Management
  • Zlatko Langović, Ph.D. John Naisbitt University, Faculty of Business Studies, Belgrade
  • Ana Langović-Milićević, Ph.D. University of Kragujevac, Faculty of Hotel Management and Tourism, Vrnjacka Banja

Abstract

This paper attempts to empirically estimate equilibrium exchange rate level of Serbian dinar. In that purpose reduced form equilibrium real exchange rate approach (ERER) is used, developed by IMF’s Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER). The research was made by using ARDL approach in the single-country analysis. It has been started from dynamic model which has described relation between real effective exchange rate and a set of fundamental variables. Bound test has been provided due to determination of the long-term relationship existence between variables. F-statistics has been used for long-term relationship testing between dependent variable and set of indicators. Since assumptions were met, least squares method was used for coeffcient estimation. The results have shown constant dinar’s overvaluation over medium term.

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References

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Published
2016-01-31
How to Cite
PAŽUN, Brankica; LANGOVIĆ, Zlatko; LANGOVIĆ-MILIĆEVIĆ, Ana. ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE RATE IN SERBIA AND ITS INFLUENCE ON AGRICULTURAL SECTOR. Economics of Agriculture, [S.l.], v. 63, n. 1, p. 47-59, jan. 2016. ISSN 2334-8453. Available at: <http://ea.bg.ac.rs/index.php/EA/article/view/176>. Date accessed: 24 oct. 2020. doi: https://doi.org/10.5937/ekoPolj1601047P.
Section
Original scientific papers